Kayaking Risk Assessment
3 August 2024
One of the challenges of being a new, novice, kayaker is that I lack the experience to adequately quantify risk. The difference between safe, risky and unfamiliar isn’t well defined and one can often appear to be like the other. So this post is try and gather some ideas and methods to help me develop better risk awareness.
Calvin Croll / BodyBoatBlade Risk Assessment
I was introduced to this method / concept during a private coaching session with Calvin Croll and it comes from his time working with BodyBoatBlade. While some methods base the overall risk on an added up number scale base on conditions, BBBs method combines the consequences of an event with the probability of its occurrence. I found this approach particularly appealing and it resonated from my experiences sailing. All too often it was easy to see sailors spend all kinds of time, effort and money on gear to “protect” them from risks with either a low consequences or a low probability of occurrence. What often seemed to be the driver in these strategies was ease of use or ease of implementation. This would result in the proverbial “Missing the Elephant in the Room”.
By breaking each potential risk factor out separately, Weather, Land, Water & Group, it leads you to focus on all the potential risk factors and makes it harder to sweep some aside because you have minimized another one.
The other feature of this method that I like is that any one risk can cause the entire event to become to risky to undertake.
Sea Conditions Rating Scale (SCRS)
This system, taken from the Tsunami Rangers Point System for Sea Conditions article, also seemed quite interesting And my thought was to see how it would rate my “normal” day winter day paddles or short crossings.
Factor Computation Method Maximum Points Score
1 Water Temperature (WT): 1 point for each degree below 72F (72 - WT = Score)
2 Wind Speed (WS): 1 point per mph of wind speed (1*WS = Score)
3 Wave Height (WH): 2 points per vertical wave foot (2*WH = Score)
4-Swim Distance (SD): Distance to Safety 1 point per 100 meters. 20 pts after 2000 meters (SD/100 meters = Score)
5-Breaking Waves (BW): 30 points if waves are breaking (If Yes, Score = 30)
6-Rock Garden (RG): 20 points if paddling in rocks (If Yes, Score = 20)
7-Sea Cave (SC): 20 points if entering sea caves (If Yes, Score - 20)
8-Night (N): 20 points if it is night (If Yes, Score - 20)
9-Fog (F): Up to 20 points if fog is dense (If Yes, Score - 20)
10-Miscellaneous (M): 10 points or more for other danger (Score up to 10 as needed)
TOTAL POINTS =
Divide total points by 20 to obtain CLASS LEVEL =
A Typical, Easy Condition Winter Paddle in the San Juan Islands
So I was drawn to this method because I was curious how a “typical” winter day paddle or short crossing rated. So let’s start with the assumptions.
Winter Water Temperature: I’m gonna be conservative and grab the absolute minimum number I can find for Friday Harbor of 43 degrees.
Wind Speed & Wave Height: A typical, non stormy day has wind 10 knots or below with waves 2 feet or less. So I’ll assume the maximum of the minimums.
Swim Distance: For this factor I’ll compare the crossings from Lopez Island to San Juan, Shaw, Jones, Stuart and Sucia and use the maximum. And as it turns out, my often traveled “normal” day paddle from Fisherman Bay on Lopez Island to Turn Island is just about 4000 meters, so the swim distance is 2000 meters, aka, the rescue distance.
Breaking Waves: Not a usual occurrence during “normal” winter conditions.
Rock Gardening: N/A
Fog: That would fall outside my “normal” paddling conditions.
Miscellaneous: N/A
So let’s sum this up:
WT = 72 - 43 = 29 pts
WS = 10*1.51 = 11.5 pts
WH = 2*2 = 4
SD = 20 pts
Sum = 64.5 pts
Sum / 20 = Class Level = 3.2
So my normal winter day paddles rate a Class III.
Making Sense of it All
So now I have a number and some pretty charts, now what? Well that’s the Elephant in the Room now isn’t it? I’ve dove into this topic for two reasons. One, to try to start understanding, or estimating the risk I’m taking during my kayaking excursions. My thought being that if I have a beginning idea, or baseline, I can start to improve my risk assessment as I gain experience. But secondly, I would like to start kayaking with the local Anacortes Washington Paddling Club, Hole in the Wall Paddling Club. And they have guidelines for skill level to join their trips.
Based on these category definitions, I’d rate myself like this (as of 6 December 2024):
Geography: SKII / SKIII - I’ve definitely experienced and am comfortable with fetch of 10 nautical miles, San Juan Channel comes to mind. But I’ve yet ventured out into waters with a greater fetch than that.
Hydraulics: SKIII+ - This one’s a bit hard to suss out. While I have been in currents in excess of 4 knots, Cattle Pass, I would say that I’m comfortable yet in those conditions. But a SKIII of 2 knots max is not problem.
Route: SKII / SKIII - I’ve been in SKIV eddy lines, tiderips & boils. But I’m not yet ready to take a fully loaded kayak into those conditions. SKIII would likely be fine, although I’d plan around them when possible.
Possible Conditions: SKII / SKIII - Yet another tweener. But in this case I’d say SKIII.
Skills & Experience: SKII / SKIII - I’d definitely benefit from additional group resuming practic since I’ve mostly kayaked on my own.
So basically I’m not quite a solid SKIII level paddler at this point. But hopefully improving day by day.